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The ISCRAM Future Threat Delphi: Nostradamus Revisited

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During a 5 month period from November 2011 to March 2012, 36 professionals participated in an exploratory two-round Delphi to develop a list of 86 threats in 11 categories important for the next decade which they felt were not now receiving adequate planning or adequate development of mitigation options.  This involved 14 academics studying Emergency Preparedness and Management, eight practitioners in Emergency Management, and 14 professionals in other related fields.  A list of those involved is provided, excluding those participants who requested anonymity.  

The second round included a rating of all the threats developed on the first round.  As a result, of the rating, a significant number of threats were classified as having a strong consensus for being extremely or very important.  Another significant number of threats were identified as requiring further investigation to remove possible uncertainties and disagreements among the participants.  There was, surprisingly, only one item in all the threats for which there was a statistical significant difference in the way the EM practitioners and the other two categories of participants voted.  A follow on effort is being planned which will involve open online discussions to explore and expand on this initial effort.

Murray Turoff and Linda Plotnick

Attachment: 
http://www.iscram.org/sites/default/files/iscramDelphiFinal051012.pdf

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